Updates 2: TFG, DeSantis, Anti-Woke,
Followups on previous Takes
I launched this newsletter four weeks ago. Thanks to all who subscribed. Most of the topics I wrote about remain in the news. That’s how news works now. Endless soap-opera. Here, in brief, are more updates on topics I’ve covered (working in reverse chronological order).
See also: Updates 1.
United States of America vs. Donald J. Trump (cont’d)
It’s now the two-week anniversary since the FBI showed up with a warrant to search Mar-a-Lago. Since then, there’s been no end to speculation about why he took the documents, why he refused to return them, and what, in the end, Attorney General Merrick Garland is planning to do about it. I’m in no position to add anything to that. But I am fascinated by the political fallout after virtually the entire GOP establishment and captive media sprang into action to support Trump and to denounce the FBI, Garland, Biden, the entire Deep State, and Hunter Biden.
POV: Inside the GOP
The nearly unanimous scramble to back Trump against the FBI and the DOJ instantly put an end to any glimmering notion that Trump’s standing as party leader and presumptive 2024 nominee might be beginning to fade. The party rallied to him instantly and uncritically. They echoed all of his mutually contradictory explanations, excuses, and counterattacks. Even his most prominent rival for the nomination, Ron DeSantis felt compelled to issue a supportive Tweet that included an obligatory what-about point to Hunter Biden.
Winner: Trump. Losers: DeSantis and Cheney.
(At least in the short run. If you believe that Trump won’t continue to evade the long arm of the law, there’s a good argument to be made that both DeSantis and Cheney will emerge, long-term as big winners.)
Background Threat: Mob Violence, GOP Retaliation
The ominous rumblings that surround Trump’s legal battles have nothing to do with the merits of the various cases. They are pure and simple threats that fall into two categories: violence from the MAGA mobs and retaliation from the GOP. Both these strands go back long before the FBI’s visit to Mar-a-Lago, but they have accelerated over the past two weeks. They continue to this day and we can anticipate a further escalation if indictments are handed down. By framing any investigation of Trump crimes as nothing more than a political attack, the GOP hopes to ward off any indictment by explicitly threatening to hit back when they regain power. Latest example: today’s disingenuous and tendentious exercise in both-sides-ism from Rich Lowry that the NYTimes somehow thought was worth running.
An indictment of Mr. Trump would invite retaliation, and if Republicans retake the White House, a motivated G.O.P.-controlled Justice Department could be expected to aggressively pursue a reason to indict Joe Biden over his son Hunter’s business dealings.
Winner: Nobody. Loser: Truth, Justice, and the American Way.
POV: In the Real World
While attention to Trump pulled focus from the streak of Biden wins, Democrats shouldn’t complain too much. The GOP’s ludicrous string of excuses, explanations, and accusations was a net loss for them. An NBC News poll conducted August 12-16, showed 57% of Americans want the investigations into Trump to continue. That same poll found that the top issue for American voters isn’t any of the GOP hot-button issues (inflation, crime, immigration) nor is it one of the top Democratic issues (abortion, guns, climate) but rather “threats to democracy.” (The poll interviewed 1000 Registered Voters, including 750 respondents interviewed on their cell phone. Date: August 12-16, 2022)
Winners: Rule of Law, Democrats. Losers: Trump, GOP
The pleasing irony of it all is that the more tightly the GOP and Trump are bound to each other, the less attractive they are to a majority of voters. Trump’s vengeful endorsements of extremist election deniers across the GOP has created an atmosphere that could well cost the Republicans their chance to regain the Senate and possibly even the House.
DeSantis Doubles Down on the Anti-Woke
DeSantis, by most reckonings, is the second most likely Republican to win the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Nationally, he’s drafting behind Trump, ready to step in if Trump falters. (Aaron Blake, in The Washington Post goes so far as to rate DeSantis ahead of Trump for the nomination—even though polling shows Trump ahead.)
The election calendar forces DeSantis to simultaneously run for president in 2024 and for re-election this year as Florida’s governor. He’s favored in polls to win the November race and is already sitting on a $130 million war chest (according to Politico). That campaign begins in earnest on Wednesday, following the Democratic primary between Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and Rep. Charlie Crist. But DeSantis isn’t waiting.
His chosen battlefield: the culture war.
Framing the Democratic Party as a “woke dumpster fire," he’s taken the unusual step, for a governor, of endorsing and financially backing 29 conservative candidates for local school boards. At a campaign event this weekend he said, "We are not going to surrender to woke. We are going to prevail and Florida is the state where woke goes to die." Key to his anti-woke curriculum: forcing teachers white-wash U.S. history, and limit any conversation about gender diversity and LGBTQ+ reality.
David Pepper, thriller-writer and former chair of the Ohio Democratic Party posted a viral Tweet yesterday that clearly demonstrates how white-washed history works. It’s worth the two minutes.
DeSantis is not only down to local Florida races, he is also building his national appeal to the MAGA base by endorsing out. He’s campaigning for full-on Trumpist election deniers in battleground states including, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Kari Lake in Arizona, and most recently Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania. All three are unlikely to win. If they lose, the DeSantis endorsement will be forgotten. But if they score upsets, he will have markers to claim—both with the Republican establishment and with MAGA voters.
There are two ways to view DeSantis. On one side are the apologists, like Andrew Sullivan and David From who stress how normal and un-Trump-like he is. And then on the other side, is DeSantis himself, who is working overtime to sound as Trumpy as possible as he prepares to step into Trump’s shoes.